Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 590 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AS 590 · SEA → SFO

departs 8:42 PM PT · arrives 10:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 590 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?