Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 591 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 591 · SFO → SEA

departs 8:28 PM PT · arrives 10:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 591 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?