Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 644 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 644 · SEA → PHX

departs 8:50 PM PT · arrives 11:49 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 644 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?