Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 646 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 646 · DFW → PDX

departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.74 in

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 646 · DFW → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?