AS 651 · RDU → SEA

departs 7:12 PM ET · arrives 9:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 651 · RDU → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?