AS 659 · SJC → SEA

departs 2:08 PM PT · arrives 4:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from SJC are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SJC that day

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 659 · SJC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?