Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 704 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AS 704 · SEA → LAS

departs 8:15 PM PT · arrives 10:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 704 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?