Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 70 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 70 · JNU → SIT

departs 10:18 PM AKDT · arrives 10:59 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SIT?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SIT that day

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

↓ 10pm departures from JNU are usually not late

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

SIT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 70 · JNU → SIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SIT?