AS 731 · PHX → PAE

departs 11:00 AM MT · arrives 2:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 731 · PHX → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?