Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 733 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 733 · SEA → SLC

departs 11:51 AM PT · arrives 3:04 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 733 · SEA → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?