AS 747 · ANC → AKN

departs 3:56 PM AKT · arrives 5:11 PM AKT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at AKN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AKN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AKN

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

AKN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 747 · ANC → AKN

Odds over time

How late will it get to AKN?