Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 774 · SNA → SEA

departs 5:38 PM PT · arrives 8:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 774 · SNA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?