Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 788 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 788 · LIH → SFO

departs 3:43 PM HT · arrives 11:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.48 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 788 · LIH → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?