Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 799SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 799 · PHX → SEA
departs 6:02 AM MT · arrives 9:08 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
8%chance · ±0 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.