AS 803 · LAX → HNL

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 12:58 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 803 · LAX → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?