Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 806 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 806 · HNL → LAS

departs 7:55 AM HT · arrives 4:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ 7am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.27 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 806 · HNL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?