Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 807 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 807 · LAS → HNL

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 1:29 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 807 · LAS → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?