AS 812 · HNL → SFO

departs 12:20 PM HT · arrives 8:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 812 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?