AS 824 · NRT → SEA

departs 5:59 PM JST · arrives 11:17 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 824 · NRT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?