AS 826 · HNL → LAX

departs 11:44 AM HT · arrives 8:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 826 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?