AS 827 · HNL → SAN

departs 7:30 AM HT · arrives 4:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 827 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?