Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 853 · HNL → LAX

departs 11:58 PM HT · arrives 8:23 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

61% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
40%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 853 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?