AS 854 · HNL → SJC

departs 12:40 PM HT · arrives 8:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.26 in

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 854 · HNL → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?