AS 876 · HNL → LAS

departs 1:25 PM HT · arrives 10:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.37 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 876 · HNL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?