Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 921 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 921 · KOA → SJC

departs 12:51 PM HT · arrives 8:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SJC that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 921 · KOA → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?