Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 930 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 930 · OGG → SEA

departs 12:55 PM HT · arrives 9:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 930 · OGG → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?