Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 960 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 960 · OGG → SMF

departs 11:27 AM HT · arrives 7:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ 11am departures from OGG are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 960 · OGG → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?