AS 964 · LIH → LAX

departs 11:31 AM HT · arrives 8:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ 11am departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.48 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 964 · LIH → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?