AS 974 · LIH → PDX

departs 11:24 AM HT · arrives 7:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ 11am departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.91 in

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 974 · LIH → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?