B6 1042 · MCO → ROC

departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 1:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

ROC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip5.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1042 · MCO → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?