B6 1184 · MCO → JFK

departs 6:53 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±2 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1184 · MCO → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?