B6 1950 · RSW → BUF

departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RSW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts44 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.79 in

BUF (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1950 · RSW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?