Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
B6 264 · SEA → JFK
departs 10:19 PM PT · arrives 6:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 36%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.