Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
B6 286 · RDU → JFK
departs 6:50 AM ET · arrives 8:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.