Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
B6 416 · SFO → JFK
departs 2:35 PM PT · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 9/30 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.