Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
B6 863 · FLL → ORD
departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Wed 9/30 44%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 36%
Sun 10/4 43%
Mon 10/5 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.84 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.