Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1014 · LGA → DTW
departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 10:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.