Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 1154 · ATL → RDU
departs 9:58 PM ET · arrives 11:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 20%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.