Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1230 · DTW → MEM
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.