DL 1243 · TPA → DTW

departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±9 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DTW that day

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

DTW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1243 · TPA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?