Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1391
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 1391 · PHL → DTW
departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 9/30 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.