DL 1409 · ROC → DTW

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:20 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DTW that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ROC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip2.09 in

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1409 · ROC → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?