Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 1439 · BOS → TPA
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 7:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 9/30 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.