DL 1471 · SAT → LAX

departs 4:48 PM CT · arrives 5:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip2.75 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1471 · SAT → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?