DL 1475 · SAT → DTW

departs 3:59 PM CT · arrives 8:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1475 · SAT → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?