DL 1557 · BNA → DTW

departs 2:03 PM CT · arrives 4:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1557 · BNA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?