Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1584 · AUS → LAX
departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 9:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±8 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 6.33333 mi Precip 1.56 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.