Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1591
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
DL 1591 · ATL → TPA
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.