DL 1631 · ORD → LGA

departs 2:32 PM CT · arrives 5:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±5 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.99 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1631 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?