Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 1685 · JFK → MCO
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.